Survivorship Bias
In his article Why Success Stories Are Just Propaganda, Martin Weigel describes survivorship bias like this:
“Survivorship bias… flash-freezes your brain into a state of ignorance from which you believe success is more common than it truly is and therefore you leap to the conclusion that it also must be easier to obtain. You develop a completely inaccurate assessment of reality thanks to a prejudice that grants the tiny number of survivors the privilege of representing the much larger group to which they originally belonged.”
Survivorship bias is true in the military, business, marketing, finance... etc.
“In finance, survivorship bias is the tendency for failed companies to be excluded from performance studies because they no longer exist. It often causes the results of studies to skew higher because only companies which were successful enough to survive until the end of the period are included.”
It is true for careers too.
“Whether it be movie stars, or athletes, or musicians, or CEOs of multibillion-dollar corporations who dropped out of school, popular media often tells the story of the determined individual who pursues their dreams and beats the odds. There is much less focus on the many people that may be similarly skilled and determined but fail to ever find success because of factors beyond their control or other (seemingly) random events.”
It's a concept I hear about more and more. Especially in marketing and business. I think people are getting more realistic about case study results, success stories and romanticized business adventures. I think it's a great filter to have in your toolbox – to ask yourself when you read something if the conclusions are not just this logical error called survivorship bias.